There is another mobility trend on the horizon besides autonomous driving; carsharing. In the future, we will renounce car ownership and only take a car when we really need it. The consequences are somewhat paradoxical, as the number of cars in Europe will go down, but the roads will get busier. We explain.
Car ownership a thing of the past
It was once part of the American Dream, a shiny car in the driveway as a symbol of freedom. In the Netherlands, too, the car became a sacred cow. According to Christoph Stürmer, an analyst at PwC, this notion is going into the trash and the car as a status symbol will soon be passé. Through four different concepts (roundtrip, one-way, peer-to-peer and fractional), we will increasingly share cars with each other. Initially in cities but later also in rural areas. The advance of carsharing seems to be a fait accompli.
Better for the environment
The benefits are numerous. Take the environmental aspect. Cars contribute significantly to total greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. A recent study found that carsharing makes a positive contribution to achieving energy and climate goals. Declining car ownership as a result of carsharing yields an additional reduction of 230 to 320 kilograms of Co2 per year in the Netherlands.
The environmental analysis also considered the lifespan of a shared car. This is quite short due to intensive use, only 3.9 years compared to an average of 17.3 years for a owned car. Producing and scrapping a car requires raw materials and energy. What emerged: despite the short lifespan of shared cars, there is still a net reduction in Co2 emissions.
The car manufacturers see it too
So more cars will have to be manufactured as well as scrapped. PwC predicts an increase in the number of new cars to 24 million units. In this respect, we need not feel sorry for car manufacturers. Indeed, the fact that the car manufacturers are co-profiteering may actually be the catalyst that will push carsharing to great heights. The powerful car lobby will keep quiet and not frustrate the advance of carsharing.
Carsharing simultaneously represents an opportunity for new car brands to penetrate the car market. Still, says PwC, lower total volume of cars will pose a challenge to smaller manufacturers that lack critical mass and could therefore be squeezed out of the market.
Halving the number of cars in Germany by 2050
A study suggests that the moment carsharing gains traction, the total number of cars in Europe could fall from 280 million to 200 million units by 2030. And that is just the beginning. In Germany, a halving of the car fleet is expected around 2050. And that's not all, carshare startup Zipcar thinks a single shared car could keep as many as 17 cars off the road. Moreover, a third of all miles travelled would be driven by cars shared with others in one way or another. So a significant impact on mobility!
Still stuck in traffic jams...
Those who think that congestion will then ease will be disappointed. A shared car is heavily used and on average travels more than four times as many kilometres as an owned car. We will certainly notice this on the roads; they will become even more congested. The threshold to go by bus or bike will be lower if car-sharing becomes more prevalent. This may cause young and elderly people who normally take the bus to prefer to take a car because it offers more comfort.
More cars on the road means fewer cars idling, in parking spaces. Where previously parking issues were a brake on car use, this may not be the case in the future. Lots of parking space will be an incentive for some to use a car instead of public transport. Even more traffic, in other words.
Do we want to?
Lack of willingness to share a car is an inhibiting factor for carsharing. This willingness varies quite a bit by country. In the Netherlands, car ownership is not seen as a must and as many as 59% want to use carsharing for leisure travel. For commuting, this percentage is even higher, where a sloppy 68% of Dutch people say they want to use carsharing. This shows that it is not too surprising that the number of shared cars in major cities only continues to rise.
And what does this look like abroad? A PwC survey shows that in Germany, 54% of the population is willing to try carsharing once. In China, 84% are looking forward to sharing a car. The difference is easily explained. In Germany, a traditional view of car ownership prevails while in China the majority do not own a car at all. In fact, our German neighbours really like to be in control of the car they drive and find it important to know more about the car than just getting into it. For instance, in Germany it is very important that the car has good winter tyres when the temperature drops below 7 degrees and they like to know what kind of power the engine has. This contributes to the lower percentage of willingness in Germany to share cars. In China, the car is seen very differently because most people there do not own a car. Therefore, carsharing quickly becomes very attractive as no initial purchase investment is needed.
Carsharing & autonomous driving: match made in heaven
Carsharing also interfaces with that other megatrend in mobility, autonomous driving. The moment cars can brave traffic without human steering, a car can deliver itself to you on demand. The result is a genius transport concept!
A new boom period for the car on the horizon?
Carsharing is definitely a significant development in mobility, especially now that there seems to be synergy with autonomous driving. Yet it is not all hosanna. Increasing traffic pressure will become a problem as shared cars are used intensively.
The fact that carsharing does not require a large initial investment to get behind the wheel could eventually usher in a new heyday for the car. The question is do we really want this? Wasn't the whole point of going by public transport, or by bike? Whether and where the car-sharing ship will eventually run aground cannot be predicted at the moment. Perhaps eventually 95% of the Dutch will drive autonomous shared cars and only the Will Smiths among us will still tear across the motorways between the neatly driving shared cars.
